Quand COVID-19 nous rappelle les principes basiques de business

En 2008, j’avais que 15 ans quand le monde a été secoué par une récession économique. Je ne comprenais pas grand-chose aux finances ni comment l’économie marche. Cependant, je me souviens bien des lamentations des personnes presque partout sur la rareté de l’argent et l’instabilité économique.

12 ans après, il me semble que nous nous dirigeons directement vers une autre crise économique mais celle-ci sera le résultat d’une crise sanitaire épidémique mondiale inédite alors que la précédente était anthropique (de nature humaine) causé par l’optimisme inconditionnel des acteurs sur l’état du marché financier Américain jumelé avec une crise sévère de dette.

Avant que COVID-19 fut son apparition, l’économie se portait à merveille. Une inflation stable accompagnée d’une croissance stable. Des PMEs en pleine croissance. Des investisseurs hâtes de financer des projets rentables avec des retours d’investissement intéressants sur le moyen terme. Des banques solvables avec beaucoup de cash qui cherchaient à qui faire des prêts avec des taux d’intérêts faibles.

Malheureusement, l’homme a tendance à oublier souvent le passé quand tout fonctionne au présent. Il oublie le désespoir quand il sent l’espoir. Il se penche sur son optimisme quand la roue tourne et inhibe son coté pessimiste. Il oublie qu’il était pauvre quand il devient riche. Il oublie qu’il était malade quand il regagne sa santé.

Ce n’est pas le cas pour tout le monde. Mais la réalité est que, d’une part, on oublie la dichotomie des choses et d’une autre part, on est conditionné par la dopamine ; cette urge incessante de vouloir encore et toujours plus.  

Plus qu’on travaille, plus on augmente notre revenu. Plus on gagne, plus on dépense et plus on a tendance à souscrire à un prêt. Un prêt qui n’est rien d’autre qu’une dette basée sur l’espoir que la croissance économique continue. Et le cycle continue et se renforce soi-même augmentant ainsi la confiance des acteurs sur le marché et leur goût aux risques…….

Jusqu’à ce qu’on arrive à un niveau où la bulle sera tellement sous pression par la demande et l’offre qu’elle n’aura aucun autre choix que d’éclater et de remporter tout sur sa chute. Cette chute semble éminente pas pour les mêmes raisons que 2008 à cause de l’arrêt temporaire de l’économie mondiale liée à la pandémie avec tout ce que ça entraîne.

Avant le retour à la normale, j’aimerais partager avec vous les quatre principes phares que chaque crise nous enseigne y compris celle-ci et pourtant on a tendance à les oublier aussi vite que la crise se décante.

La vérité est que la vie est un cycle et la compréhension de ses principes vous aideront à bien placer vos pions dans l’avenir et dans les différentes phases du cycle.

Principe 1 : Chaque montée est suivie par une chute et vice-versa.

Le Sénégal a reçu de nombreux présidents occidentaux ces derniers mois ; du Premier Ministre Canadien, le Président Turc, le Secrétaire d’Etat d’Amérique, le Président Chinois, .…. et la liste continue. Ils sont tous venus avec leur cortège de bailleurs et d’investisseurs pour participer dans la course de l’émergence du continent avant l’éclatement de la pandémie.

Ce qui est loin d’être surprenant étant donné que nous avons une monnaie stable, pas de perturbation politique, main d’œuvre facile et pas chère, des réformes souples et une économie en pleine inflation avec des taux d’intérêts faibles sans compter la complicité de nos politiques.

Les bailleurs insufflaient des milliards et des milliards dans le système finançant de nombreux projets. Toutes les conditions étaient réunies pour garantir des retours d’investissement très significatifs sur le moyen et court-terme.

Le secteur privé, très optimistes qu’ils sont, a cru que la fête va continuer pour toujours. Plus les bailleurs investissent, plus de nouvelles entreprises se créent et plus ses dernières s’endettent pour avoir ou développer un capital financier à l’espoir de gagner ou d’exécuter un marché.

Quand les banques sont bombardées de liquidités, il n’en faut pas beaucoup pour mériter un prêt. Elles cherchent littéralement de clients potentiels à qui donner des crédits. Il suffit juste de démontrer que vos soi-disant futurs revenus permettraient de couvrir la dette.

Les entreprises, les particuliers tombent dans le piège. Ils oublient qu’une dette n’est que la promesse de verser un montant de son futur revenu à condition que ce revenu continue d’exister.

La réalité est que ce futur revenu dépend sur un marché qui dépend à son tour sur un système financier et qui à son tour peut bousculer d’un moment à l’autre.

Chaque montée sera suivie par une chute. Chaque inflation sera suivie par une déflation. Chaque bulle finira par s’éclater d’une manière ou d’une autre. Le passé trouvera toujours un moyen de faire partie de la conversation du moment présent.

Principe 2 : C’est quand la mer se retire qu’on voit ceux qui se baignent nus  

Et voilà la pandémie du Corona qui vient pour déranger l’ordre. Elle est sur la voie de déplacer la mer et ses vagues. Dans les semaines à venir, les entreprises qui avaient reçues les investissements des bailleurs et celles qui ont des prêts à servir verront leurs futurs gains diminuer drastiquement à cause de l’arrêt temporaire de l’économie.

Autrement dit, ce qu’elles vont gagner serait inférieures à ce qu’elles doivent déposer pour honorer leurs dettes. Elles pourront plus payer leur dû et auront du mal au fur et à mesure de subvenir aux besoins de roulement de leurs business du jour au jour.

Vu que la dépense de quelqu’un est le revenu de quelqu’un d’autre. Plus la crise dure, plus les dépenses diminuent (optimisation) causant ainsi la baisse des revenus et éventuellement la dégringolade de l’économie de manière générale.

Par conséquent, les institutions financières vont souffrir. Il y aura moins de flux, moins de transfert de capital et les débiteurs ne seront plus solvables pour effectuer des dépôts sur leur dû.

Les banques vont serrer les tuyaux pour protéger leur liquidité en le mettant à la disposition de leurs usagers, en rendant les critères d’éligibilité aux crédits plus sévères et en augmentant les taux d’intérêts pour dissuader la population de prendre de nouveaux prêts.

Comme vous pouvez l’imaginer, la chute est assurée presque pour toutes les parties prenantes sauf ……..

Principe 3 : la victoire est l’anticipation de la défaite

Quand l’économie est à l’arrêt, tout le monde devient soudainement rationnel avec son argent. La fameuse citation ‘’Manager c’est anticiper’’ est plus véridique que jamais en situations de crise. Le rôle du management est de se préparer, quand tous les voyants sont au vert, aux futurs problèmes pour maîtriser le panic et le stress (les réactions humaines démesurées) qui se créent une fois les voyants tourneront au rouge. Car le stress et le panic sont dans leur essence une crise.

Seules les entreprises qui avaient laissées du cash à côté survivront pour quelque temps avec l’espoir que la crise ne dure pas longtemps. Et celles qui croyaient que la vie restera rose pour toujours auront leur siège au plus fond du gouffre.

La meilleure manière d’avoir un ombre demain c’est de planter un arbre aujourd’hui. Toujours mettez du cash à côté qui va vous permettre d’exécuter votre plan de continuation d’activité en cas de crise d’ou la citation  »Cash is king ». Et si vous voulez vraiment amortir votre chute, établissez des mécanismes de flexibilité dans vos investissements et contrats qui vont vous donner l’autorisation de dire STOP ou de se retirer de vos engagements sans aucune retombée juridique.

La victoire n’est que l’anticipation de la défaite. Un conseil précieux à ne jamais oublier

Principe 4 :  les super héros arrivent au dernier secours et ont rarement l’imagination

Comme dans les vieux films, quand ça tourne à la dérive et il n’y a rien qu’on peut faire, on voit les super héros venir au secours. C’est le même principe avec l’économie mais cette fois-ci nos super héros ne sont pas des Spiderman, Iron Man mais plutôt le gouvernement et la Banque Centrale. Contrairement aux autres super héros, ces deux ne font absolument rien gratuitement. 

Le gouvernement, dans cette situation de crise, va tenter son premier levier :

  • Créer un fond de garantie et de solidarité en garantissant tous les prêts qui vont être octroyés aux entreprises par les institutions financières avec un montant limite bien défini.

C’est ce que le Sénégal vient juste de faire par la mise en place du Fonds Force COVID-19 d’un montant de 100 milliards de Francs pour soutenir le secteur privé. D’autres pays occidentaux aussi viennent juste de lancer la même approche.

Ce fond est financé par l’état et une partie du secteur privé. Il constitue un transfert de ressources des plus riches (ceux qui gagnent plus et dépensent moins) vers les plus pauvres (ceux qui gagnent moins et dépensent plus) pour stimuler l’économie.

Au cas où la situation s’empire du jour au jour, la Banque Centrale, notre deuxième héros va parallèlement et probablement actionner le deuxième levier : 

  • Imprimer des billets d’argent (un gros montant) à insuffler dans le système pour prévoir tout manque potentiel de liquidité.

Raison pour laquelle la banque centrale des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (BCEAO) vient d’imprimer 1050 milliards mis à la disposition des banques pour stimuler l’économie (promouvoir les crédits et le financement des PME/PMI) en plus d’une hausse de 340 milliards sur le montant qu’elle accorde chaque semaine à la banque pour assurer la liquidité dans le système.

Ses efforts faits par le gouvernement et la BCEAO sont en train de porter leurs fruits dans l’économie. Cependant, si la France vient de perdre 6% de son PIB et déclare déjà une récession, il est fort probable qu’on soit dans le même dilemme si le confinement continue jusqu’à la fin du mois.

Il est aussi tout à fait presqu’inévitable que la BCEAO va procéder (troisième levier) à une :

  • Restructuration des dettes

Que ce soit par la diminution des taux d’intérêts sur les dettes à un pourcentage inférieur bien défini dans un intervalle régulier ou par l’allongement des échéances de paiement pour donner un peu de souffle aux débiteurs.

Le souci avec cette option est que si on diminue les taux d’intérêts à l’ordre de 0.75% par an par exemple, on arrivera à un moment où on pourra plus le baisser parce que le taux va avoisiner 0%. Ce qui accentue davantage le problème de liquidité des banques si l’économie tarde à s’auto-stimuler avec tous les trois leviers que nous venons de citer.

Quel que soit l’issue de cette crise, une chose est sûre. Notre cher pays Sénégal qui baigne déjà dans un énorme océan de dettes sera forcément obligé d’emprunter encore pour préserver son économie et se porter garant aux différentes instituions stratégiques.

Par conséquent, il est fort possible, dans les prochains mois, que notre gouvernement se lance dans une politique d’austérité (optimisation) des dépenses pour garantir ses missions régaliennes.

Et éventuellement attendez-vous à une augmentation d’impôts ou pire une chasse aux socières pour toutes les entreprises qui ont des précédents fiscaux. Beaucoup de redressement à venir une fois que l’économie reprenne son cours normal.

Encore une fois, le gouvernement ne fait rien au gratuit et cherchera toujours un moyen de récolter ses déficits.

Pour conclure, nous surmonterons tous cette crise. Les choses deviendront normales un jour. Et l’économie reprendra son envol comme si rien n’était. Ainsi, est-elle faite la vie.

Mon seul conseil pour vous c’est de ne jamais se laisser emporté par le plaisir du voyage au point d’oublier votre argent de poche.

A bientôt.

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